Systematic reduction of complex tropospheric chemical mechanisms using sensitivity and time-scale analyses

International audienceExplicit mechanisms describing the complex degradation pathways of atmospheric volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are important, since they allow the study of the contribution of individual VOCS to secondary pollutant formation. They are computationally expensive to solve however, since they contain large numbers of species and a wide range of time-scales causing stiffness in the resulting equation systems. This paper and the following companion paper describe the application of systematic and automated methods for reducing such complex mechanisms, whilst maintaining the accuracy of the model with respect to important species and features. The methods are demonstrated via application to version 2 of the Leeds Master Chemical Mechanism. The methods of local concentration sensitivity analysis and overall rate sensitivity analysis proved to be efficient and capable of removing the majority of redundant reactions and species in the scheme across a wide range of conditions relevant to the polluted troposphere. The application of principal component analysis of the rate sensitivity matrix was computationally expensive due to its use of the decomposition of very large matrices, and did not produce significant reduction over and above the other sensitivity methods. The use of the quasi-steady state approximation (QSSA) proved to be an extremely successful method of removing the fast time-scales within the system, as demonstrated by a local perturbation analysis at each stage of reduction. QSSA species were automatically selected via the calculation of instantaneous QSSA errors based on user-selected tolerances. The application of the QSSA led to the removal of a large number of alkoxy radicals and excited Criegee bi-radicals via reaction lumping. The resulting reduced mechanism was shown to reproduce the concentration profiles of the important species selected from the full mechanism over a wide range of conditions, including those outside of which the reduced mechanism was generated. As a result of a reduction in the number of species in the scheme of a factor of 2, and a reduction in stiffness, the computational time required for simulations was reduced by a factor of 4 when compared to the full scheme

Systematic reduction of complex tropospheric chemical mechanisms, Part II: Lumping using a time-scale based approach

This paper presents a formal method of species lumping that can be applied automatically to intermediate compounds within detailed and complex tropospheric chemical reaction schemes. The method is based on grouping species with reference to their chemical lifetimes and reactivity structures. A method for determining the forward and reverse transformations between individual and lumped compounds is developed. Preliminary application to the Leeds Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv2.0) has led to the removal of 734 species and 1777 reactions from the scheme, with minimal degradation of accuracy across a wide range of test trajectories relevant to polluted tropospheric conditions. The lumped groups are seen to relate to groups of peroxy acyl nitrates, nitrates, carbonates, oxepins, substituted phenols, oxeacids and peracids with similar lifetimes and reaction rates with OH. In combination with other reduction techniques, such as sensitivity analysis and the application of the quasi-steady state approximation (QSSA), a reduced mechanism has been developed that contains 35% of the number of species and 40% of the number of reactions compared to the full mechanism. This has led to a speed up of a factor of 8 in terms of computer calculation time within box model simulations

Systematic reduction of complex tropospheric chemical mechanisms, Part I: sensitivity and time-scale analyses

International audienceExplicit mechanisms describing the complex degradation pathways of atmospheric volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are important, since they allow the study of the contribution of individual VOCS to secondary pollutant formation. They are computationally expensive to solve however, since they contain large numbers of species and a wide range of time-scales causing stiffness in the resulting equation systems. This paper and the following companion paper describe the application of systematic and automated methods for reducing such complex mechanisms, whilst maintaining the accuracy of the model with respect to important species and features. The methods are demonstrated via application to version 2 of the Leeds Master Chemical Mechanism. The methods of Jacobian analysis and overall rate sensitivity analysis proved to be efficient and capable of removing the majority of redundant reactions and species in the scheme across a wide range of conditions relevant to the polluted troposphere. The application of principal component analysis of the rate sensitivity matrix was computationally expensive due to its use of the decomposition of very large matrices, and did not produce significant reduction over and above the other sensitivity methods. The use of the quasi-steady state approximation (QSSA) proved to be an extremely successful method of removing the fast time-scales within the system, as demonstrated by a local perturbation analysis at each stage of reduction. QSSA species were automatically selected via the calculation of instantaneous QSSA errors based on user-selected tolerances. The application of the QSSA led to the removal of a large number of alkoxy radicals and excited Criegee bi-radicals via reaction lumping. The resulting reduced mechanism was shown to reproduce the concentration profiles of the important species selected from the full mechanism over a wide range of conditions, including those outside of which the reduced mechanism was generated. As a result of a reduction in the number of species in the scheme of a factor of 2, and a reduction in stiffness, the computational time required for simulations was reduced by a factor of 4 when compared to the full scheme

Systematic lumping of complex tropospheric chemical mechanisms using a time-scale based approach

International audienceThis paper presents a formal method of species lumping that can be applied automatically to intermediate compounds within detailed and complex tropospheric chemical reaction schemes. The method is based on grouping species with reference to their chemical lifetimes and reactivity structures. A method for determining the forward and reverse transformations between individual and lumped compounds is developed. Preliminary application to the Leeds Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv2.0) has led to the removal of 734 species and 1777 reactions from the scheme, with minimal degradation of accuracy across a wide range of test trajectories relevant to polluted tropospheric conditions. The lumped groups are seen to relate to groups of peroxy acyl nitrates, nitrates, carbonates, oxepins, substituted phenols, oxeacids and peracids with similar lifetimes and reaction rates with OH. In combination with other reduction techniques, such as sensitivity analysis and the application of the quasi-steady state approximation (QSSA), a reduced mechanism has been developed that contains 35% of the number of species and 40% of the number of reactions compared to the full mechanism. This has led to a speed up of a factor of 8 in terms of computer calculation time within box model simulations

Dynamic interpersonal therapy for moderate to severe depression: A pilot randomized controlled and feasibility trial

Background: Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services treat most patients in England who present to primary care with major depression. Psychodynamic psychotherapy is one of the psychotherapies offered. Dynamic Interpersonal Therapy (DIT) is a psychodynamic and mentalization-based treatment for depression. 16 sessions are delivered over approximately 5 months. Neither DIT's effectiveness relative to low-intensity treatment (LIT), nor the feasibility of randomizing patients to psychodynamic or cognitive-behavioural treatments (CBT) in an IAPT setting has been demonstrated. Methods: 147 patients were randomized in a 3:2:1 ratio to DIT (n = 73), LIT (control intervention; n = 54) or CBT (n = 20) in four IAPT treatment services in a combined superiority and feasibility design. Patients meeting criteria for major depressive disorder were assessed at baseline, mid-treatment (3 months) and post-treatment (6 months) using the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD-17), Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) and other self-rated questionnaire measures. Patients receiving DIT were also followed up 6 months post-completion. Results: The DIT arm showed significantly lower HRSD-17 scores at the 6-month primary end-point compared with LIT (d = 0.70). Significantly more DIT patients (51%) showed clinically significant change on the HRSD-17 compared with LIT (9%). The DIT and CBT arms showed equivalence on most outcomes. Results were similar with the BDI-II. DIT showed benefit across a range of secondary outcomes.ConclusionsDIT delivered in a primary care setting is superior to LIT and can be appropriately compared with CBT in future RCTs

Protocol for the development of the Master Chemical Mechanism, MCM v3 (Part A): tropospheric degradation of non-aromatic volatile organic compounds

Kinetic and mechanistic data relevant to the tropospheric degradation of volatile organic compounds (VOC), and the production of secondary pollutants, have previously been used to define a protocol which underpinned the construction of a near-explicit Master Chemical Mechanism. In this paper, an update to the previous protocol is presented, which has been used to define degradation schemes for 107 non-aromatic VOC as part of version 3 of the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM v3). The treatment of 18 aromatic VOC is described in a companion paper. The protocol is divided into a series of subsections describing initiation reactions, the reactions of the radical intermediates and the further degradation of first and subsequent generation products. Emphasis is placed on updating the previous information, and outlining the methodology which is specifically applicable to VOC not considered previously (e.g. <font face='Symbol' >a</font>- and <font face='Symbol' >b</font>-pinene). The present protocol aims to take into consideration work available in the open literature up to the beginning of 2001, and some other studies known by the authors which were under review at the time. Application of MCM v3 in appropriate box models indicates that the representation of isoprene degradation provides a good description of the speciated distribution of oxygenated organic products observed in reported field studies where isoprene was the dominant emitted hydrocarbon, and that the <font face='Symbol' >a</font>-pinene degradation chemistry provides a good description of the time dependence of key gas phase species in <font face='Symbol' >a</font>-pinene/NO_X photo-oxidation experiments carried out in the European Photoreactor (EUPHORE). Photochemical Ozone Creation Potentials (POCP) have been calculated for the 106 non-aromatic non-methane VOC in MCM v3 for idealised conditions appropriate to north-west Europe, using a photochemical trajectory model. The POCP values provide a measure of the relative ozone forming abilities of the VOC. Where applicable, the values are compared with those calculated with previous versions of the MCM

Modelling of the photooxidation of toluene: conceptual ideas for validating detailed mechanisms

Toluene photooxidation is chosen as an example to examine how simulations of smog-chamber experiments can be used to unravel shortcomings in detailed mechanisms and to provide information on complex reaction systems that will be crucial for the design of future validation experiments. The mechanism used in this study is extracted from the Master Chemical Mechanism Version 3 (MCM v3) and has been updated with new modules for cresol and g-dicarbonyl chemistry. Model simulations are carried out for a toluene-NO_x experiment undertaken at the European Photoreactor (EUPHORE). The comparison of the simulation with the experimental data reveals two fundamental shortcomings in the mechanism: OH production is too low by about 80%, and the ozone concentration at the end of the experiment is over-predicted by 55%. The radical budget was analysed to identify the key intermediates governing the radical transformation in the toluene system. Ring-opening products, particularly conjugated g-dicarbonyls, were identified as dominant radical sources in the early stages of the experiment. The analysis of the time evolution of radical production points to a missing OH source that peaks when the system reaches highest reactivity. First generation products are also of major importance for the ozone production in the system. The analysis of the radical budget suggests two options to explain the concurrent under-prediction of OH and over-prediction of ozone in the model: 1) missing oxidation processes that produce or regenerate OH without or with little NO to NO₂ conversion or 2) NO₃ chemistry that sequesters reactive nitrogen oxides into stable nitrogen compounds and at the same time produces peroxy radicals. Sensitivity analysis was employed to identify significant contributors to ozone production and it is shown how this technique, in combination with ozone isopleth plots, can be used for the design of validation experiments

Sources and sinks of acetone, methanol, and acetaldehyde in North Atlantic air

International audienceMeasurements of acetone, methanol, acetaldehyde and a range of non-methane hydrocarbons have been made in North Atlantic marine air at the Mace Head observatory. Under maritime conditions the combination of OVOCs (acetone, methanol and 5 acetaldehyde) contributed up to 85% of the total mass of measured non methane organics in air and up to 80% of the OH radical organic sink, when compared with the sum of all other organic compounds including non-methane hydrocarbons, DMS and OH-reactive halocarbons (trichloromethane and tetrachloroethylene). The observations showed anomalies in the variance and abundance of acetaldehyde and acetone 10 over that expected for species with a remote terrestrial emission source and OH controlled chemical lifetime. A detailed model incorporating an explicit chemical degradation mechanism indicated in situ formation during air mass transport was on timescales longer than the atmospheric lifetime of precursor hydrocarbons or primary emission. The period over which this process was significant was similar to that of airmass mo15 tion on intercontinental scales, and formation via this route may reproduce that of a widespread diffuse source. The model indicates that continued short chain OVOC formation occurs many days from the point of emission, via longer lived intermediates of oxidation such as organic peroxides and long chain alcohols

Communicating the effectiveness and ineffectiveness of government policies and their impact on public support: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

Low public support for government interventions in health, environment and other policy domains can be a barrier to implementation. Communicating evidence of policy effectiveness has been used to influence attitudes towards policies, with mixed results. This review provides the first systematic synthesis of such studies. Eligible studies were randomized controlled experiments that included an intervention group that provided evidence of a policy's effectiveness or ineffectiveness at achieving a salient outcome, and measured policy support. From 6498 abstracts examined, there were 45 effect sizes from 36 eligible studies. In total, 35 (N = 30 858) communicated evidence of effectiveness, and 10 (N = 5078) communicated evidence of ineffectiveness. Random effects meta-analysis revealed that communicating evidence of a policy's effectiveness increased support for the policy (SMD = 0.11, 95% CI [0.07, 0.15], p < 0.0001), equivalent to support increasing from 50% to 54% (95% CI [53%, 56%]). Communicating evidence of ineffectiveness decreased policy support (SMD = -0.14, 95% CI [-0.22, -0.06], p < 0.001), equivalent to support decreasing from 50% to 44% (95% CI [41%, 47%]). These findings suggest that public support for policies in a range of domains is sensitive to evidence of their effectiveness, as well as their ineffectiveness

Evaluation of detailed aromatic mechanisms (MCMv3 and MCMv3.1) against environmental chamber data

International audienceA high quality dataset on the photo-oxidation of benzene, toluene, p-xylene and 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene has been obtained from experiments in the European Photoreactor (EUPHORE), a large outdoor environmental reaction chamber. The experiments were designed to test sensitive features of detailed aromatic mechanisms, and the dataset has been used to evaluate the performance of the Master Chemical Mechanism Version 3 (MCMv3). An updated version (MCMv3.1) was constructed based on recent experimental data, and details of its development are described in a companion paper. The MCMv3.1 aromatic mechanisms have also been evaluated using the EUPHORE dataset. Significant deficiencies have been identified in the mechanisms, in particular: 1) an over-estimation of the ozone concentration, 2) an under-estimation of the NO oxidation rate, 3) an under-estimation of OH. The use of MCMv3.1 improves the model-measurement agreement in some areas but significant discrepancies remain